Saturday, January 23, 2010
Quantitative Assessment of House Price Distributions
To begin, I pulled data from the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (monthly) from January 2000 to October 2009. I then converted the index value to a periodic rate of return for each month, using the natural log function. That data was then summarized in histogram format below:
The two distributions are somewhat similar at first glance, although Atlanta appears more skewed to the left. Atlanta's most frequently observed interval (bin) of return is also a bit higher than Charlotte's. However, in this instance I'm most interested in providing an investor with a general idea concerning the risk associated with a house purchase in each of these markets. To do so, I computed the mean and standard deviation for each city's returns. Furthermore, I calculated the (theoretical of course) probability that a given month's return would be less than zero for each market:
The Conclusion: Although the monthly return could conceivably be higher for an Atlanta house, there is a 45.75% probability that a given month's return will be less than zero - negative that is. In Charlotte, that figure is only 39.54%. Furthermore, it's important to note that the Atlanta data is characterized by a fatter left tail; that is, Atlanta has experienced multiple months of >2% price declines, while Charlotte's returns all fall above -2%.
Clearly, there are many variables that influence house prices, not all of which are even subject to attempted forecasting. However, I would venture to say that the method above provides a reasonable illustration of the relative risk associated with a real estate investment in the two subject markets.
*no positions in either Charlotte or Atlanta real estate. I am licensed to sell real estate in NC however. Sphere: Related Content
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Free Markets Don't Exist in the US; Stop Pretending They Do
Let's take the housing market for instance. I almost hesitate to use the word "market", because that would imply that real estate prices are determined via a discovery process between willing buyers and sellers. Some individuals ignorantly believe that this is the case, but it's just not true. The housing market of today has become a swollen, government supported beast that features Uncle Sam's involvement at literally every turn. Just think about it. Interest rates on home mortgages are currently being held at artificially low levels; the byproduct of the Federal Reserve's $Trillion+ experiment into purchasing Treasury bonds and Fannie/Freddie's repackaged filth. Of course, the Fannie/Freddie foray is also providing the housing market with mortgage fund availability by transferring risk from the private lender to the government entity. Next, as your mortgage goes through the origination process, it is increasingly more likely to be insured by the FHA. In 2006, less than 10% of new mortgage origination's were insured by the federal government; today, over 40% can be placed in that ignoble category. It doesn't end once you've purchased your American dream of a home though; the government has heavily subsidized housing through it's structuring of the tax code. The mortgage interest deduction effectively convinces millions of people that they can afford a more expensive house just by the virtue of top-of-napkin calculations and the perverted logic of "pay more to save more on interest". Thus is the intoxicating effect that home-ownership inspires in so many people.
Now let's talk about the federal government's entitlement programs: Medicare and Social Security. To make this a little more personal, let's talk about this issue in terms of the paycheck you bring home from your job, or to be more precise, the part of your paycheck that you don't get to bring home. These deductions are Ponzi-schemed away from every one of your paychecks, and direct-deposited into the bank account of a Social Security recipient. If we as Americans have decided that this little sleight of hand is an appropriate way to handle retirement funding, then so be it (Well actually, only "so be it" until the United States is forced, by it's creditors, to end it's profligate ways. At that point, we'll need to take machettes, not scalpels, to the federal budget. Line item #1, the biggest one by the way, is Social Security.). Nevertheless, I refuse to acknowledge Social Security as anything other than a modified version of communism. It's modified because, instead of everybody propping up everybody else (a collective sort of propping if you will) we have a situation whereby only one segment of the population is being propped up by all the rest. It's well established via civil rights legislation and Supreme Court case law that the federal government is prohibited from discrimination on the basis of - among other categories - age. Why then, is the federal government fundamentally structured to provide benefits to one age group at the expense of all the rest? If you're getting mad right now, you can go ahead and calm down; I'm not advocating that anybody be "cut off", and I understand that the circumstances surrounding aging in general merit special consideration from a societal point of view. The only thing that I would propose is that millionaires be barred from receiving social security benefits. When you look at the name of the damn entitlement - "Social Security" - you should understand that it's true purpose is to provide income to those who weren't dealt a hand which led to millions in the bank at retirement time; it shouldn't serve as a supplement for those who have already assured their personal "Social Security" through the massive accumulation of capital. In other words, if two men, we'll call them "A" and "B", pay fire insurance premiums on their home for 30 years. Let's say A's home burns down, and he receives a payout from the insurance company. B is more fortunate; his house doesn't burn down. In this case, it would make no sense for B to receive a refund for his year's worth of premiums paid; sure, he paid into the insurance pool, but in the end he didn't need it.
The most recent example of the complete lack of free markets in the US is the brewing controversy surrounding "net neutrality". The internet, at it's infancy, was kind of an un-regulated wild west of commerce. Now however, the government is gearing up to micromanage the way service providers are allowed to treat traffic that utilizes their bandwidth.
Bottom line, free markets don't exist, so let's not pretend that they do. Invoking the "free markets work best" line of reasoning is essentially a thinly veiled justification for opposing a policy which happens to not benefit you. Once you've disavowed buying a home, taking a Social Security check, and using the internet, then maybe you are qualified to preach about the merits of free marketeerism. If you haven't (and you won't) then such proselytizing amounts to little more than hypocrisy. Sphere: Related Content
Friday, July 31, 2009
Treasury Spends $90 Million to Create New Housing Inventory
To be clear, we do not have an issue with elderly persons being provided a place to live. Our contention arises from what appears to be the creation of new housing inventory by the federal government. For the housing market to recover, a very simple dynamic needs to emerge: housing starts must remain subdued for a period, and be accompanied by higher sales that are a function of depressed prices. We have already seen some positive data points emerge as of recent in terms of the rate of home sales; signaling that at least to some degree, prices have dropped sufficiently to spur new demand. This trend will be rendered useless by the creation of new inventory, which will serve to negate the positive inventory reductions associated with higher sales. Furthermore, Treasury's strategy is another example of inefficient government spending; it is directing funds towards projects that the free market has abandoned, for the purpose of achieving a political agenda. Although the roots of said agenda may be fastened to a moral purpose, the continuation of these policies will only serve to prolong the housing slump.
Research facilitated by InfoNgen Sphere: Related Content
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Parsing the Case-Shiller House Price Data
On the final Tuesday of every month, the nation is treated to the data point known as the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index; offering us a snapshot of housing price performance across 20 major metropolitan areas. (As a side note, why is Houston not included in this list?) The chart above illustrates the performance of the 20 cities covered by the index as of May 2009 (unfortunate 2 month lag time). We'd recommend assessing the data from this perspective, as the headline number reported in the media belies the fact that all real estate is local; to a degree that is. Breaking the chart out into individual cities allows you to discern the differences in the health of each market; it also illuminates the fact that not all cities participated in what could be called a "boom" in real estate during the past decade - conversely, not all areas of the country have "busted". Relevant observations from today's release:- Home prices in every metropolitan area except Detroit are, as of May 2009, above their January 2000 level.
- New York is still 70.5% above it's January 2000 level
- Month-to-month, Cleveland (surprise) logged a 4.1% increase; the highest in the series. Las Vegas dropped 2.6%, earning that city the title of "laggard" of the group.
- Every city logged a year over year price decline, however the range was 30.1 percentage points. Max: Dallas -4.1% , Min: Phoenix -34.2%
Friday, July 17, 2009
NAHB Housing Market Index v. S&P 500 (1985-Present)

The National Association of Home Builders released yesterday the results of it's monthly survey of home builders, the data from which serves to comprise the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The survey indicated an improvement in builder's sentiment since the June survey, maintaining the positive trend that has occurred since the HMI index reached a low in January of 2009. The HMI index is not the most quantitatively rigorous measurement of the housing market, as the data is derived from a simple survey of home builders that seeks to gauge their perception of future activity. Additionally, the survey is only applicable to new, single family home construction and sales. One could argue however, that the survey is a leading indicator; based on the fact that the data is collected from a "boots on the ground" perspective that may not have had time to appear in other housing market indices/data releases. That being said, we thought it would be useful to compare the NAHB HMI to the S&P 500, using all available data from the only 24 year old HMI. It would seem that for the past decade at least, the HMI has been a leading indicator of major movements in the S&P 500. Of course, nothing can be firmly deduced from a time series as brief as 10 years, so take from the chart what you will.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Investors Seeking Real Estate Exposure Should Consider Timber ETF

The new MacroShares Housing ETF's (UMM) and (DMM) are a provocative new set of investment vehicles, offerring investors exchange traded access to house prices in major metropolitan areas. Although these new securities are intriguing from a conceptual standpoint, there are some specific aspects that may cause investors to pause; namely the 3X leverage, the up/down structure which last summer proved problematic in tracking oil, and the efficacy of tracking a monthly-updated-index with a daily fluctuating, exchange traded product.
As an alternative, it might make sense for investors to consider the Claymore/Beacon Global Timber Index ETF (CUT). The fund's fact sheet outlines the following criterion for a stock's inclusion in the underlying index:
"All stocks in the Index are selected from the universe of global timber companies. Clear Indexes LLC, the Fund’s index provider, defines global timber companies as firms who own or lease forested land and harvest the timber from such forested land for commercial use and sale of wood-based products, including lumber, pulp or other processed or finished goods such as paper and packaging."
Given the obvious role that lumber plays in the housing market, it seemed logical to us that there should be some correlation between CUT and the S&P Case/Shiller 10-City Composite. To test that theory out, we compared the price of the two between November 2007(date of inception for CUT) and April 2009(most recent Case-Shiller data). For the sake of this comparison, we used the price of the timber index ETF on the first trading day of each month.
With an r2 of 0.87, this obviously isn't a pure play on US housing prices; we would point out though that with the fund's global focus - only 32.15% of the fund's holdings as of 3/31/09 are US based corporations - an investor stands to benefit from any global uptick in building activity, regardless of whether the US is able to participate in said uptick.
*no position in any securities mentioned, please read the disclaimer at the bottom of this site
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